Conditioning on the Pre-Test versus Gain Score Modelling: Revisiting the Controversy in a Multilevel Setting.

We consider estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome measured on subjects tested both before and after treatment assignment in observational studies. A vast literature compares the competing approaches of modelling the post-test score conditionally on the pre-test score versus modelling the difference, namely, the gain score. Our contribution lies in analyzing the merits and drawbacks of two approaches in a multilevel setting. This is relevant in many fields, such as education, where students are nested within schools. The multilevel structure raises peculiar issues related to contextual effects and the distinction between individual-level and cluster-level treatments. We compare the two approaches through a simulation study. For individual-level treatments, our findings align with existing literature. However, for cluster-level treatments, the scenario is more complex, as the cluster mean of the pre-test score plays a key role. Its reliability crucially depends on the cluster size, leading to potentially unsatisfactory estimators with small clusters.

Non-standard family histories and wellbeing at older ages.

The life course approach emphasizes that health and wellbeing at older ages are influenced by experiences occurred in the previous stages of life. We contribute to the literature by focusing on the role of the non-standardness of family histories and argue that individuals who experienced non-standard trajectories have been exposed to social sanctions throughout their life course with negative long-term consequences on wellbeing. In our study, non-standardness of family histories is the extent an individual's family history differs from those of the others within reference groups, defined combining birth cohort, gender and country of residence. Family histories between age of 15 and 49 are analyzed using Sequence Analysis, thus accounting for events related to fertility and union formation (marriage and cohabitation) and dissolution, and their timing. Dissimilarities between family sequences are measured using optimal matching and are standardized within the reference groups. We use retrospective data from the seventh wave of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and estimate linear regression models to assess the association between non-standardness of family histories and older people's life satisfaction. Quality of life and depressive symptoms are examined in additional analyses. A negative association is found between non-standardness of family histories and wellbeing, which is stronger for lower educated individuals and in Southern European countries. Results are consistent with the idea that uncommon family behaviors may have a long-term negative effect on wellbeing. Individual resources and a more tolerant societal context can reduce or eliminate the negative consequences of engaging in non-standard family behaviors.

The prevalence of grandparental childcare in Europe: a research update.

We investigate (a) how the proportion of European grandparents providing childcare changed over a period of 15 years, (b) how these proportions differ by gender and education, and (c) how countries not covered in earlier analyses fit into previously identified regional patterns of grandparental childcare in Europe. Using data from Waves 1, 2, and 8 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), our descriptive analysis provides estimates of the prevalence and intensity of grandparental childcare in 26 European countries as well as of the changes therein over time and across socio-demographically defined groups. Overall, the prevalence and intensity of grandparental childcare in Europe has remained fairly stable over time, with minor increases. Proportions of grandparents providing any childcare strongly vary, however, across countries (from 24 to 60%). Grandmothers are generally more likely to provide childcare than grandfathers, while differences based on educational levels are less clear-cut. Central and southeastern Europe, representing the bulk of the 'new' countries in the analysis, exhibit patterns of grandparental childcare closely resembling those observed in Mediterranean countries. Our analysis revealed an overall stability over time rather than change in grandparents' provision of childcare in Europe, with substantial variations across welfare state regimes and within countries when accounting for grandparents' gender and educational levels. Including countries that had previously been excluded from other studies challenges the 'narrative' that has emerged around a negative macrolevel association between the provision of extensive and intensive grandparental childcare.

Less Is (Often) More: Number of Children and Health Among Older Adults in 24 Countries.

OBJECTIVES: Previous evidence about the impact of parenthood on health for older adults is mixed, perhaps due to variation in number of children and context. Higher numbers of children could lead to support or strain, depending on individual and country contexts. Yet, no studies currently exist that examine associations between the number of children and several health indicators among older adults across multiple global regions. METHODS: We analyze cross-sectional data (1992-2017) of 166,739 adults aged 50+ across 24 countries from the Health and Retirement Study family of surveys to document associations between the number of children, treated as a categorical variable, and 5 health outcomes (self-rated health, activities of daily living limitations, instrumental activities of daily living limitations, chronic conditions, and depression). We perform multivariable analyses by estimating logistic regression models for each country and each outcome. RESULTS: Multiple comparisons between categories of number of children revealed at least 1 significant difference in each country, and a majority of significant differences indicated those with more children had poorer health. The risk of poorer health for parents of multiple children was observed in 15 countries, but in some countries, fewer children predict poorer health. The greatest number of differences was identified for depression and chronic conditions, and very few for functional limitations. DISCUSSION: We observe a greater probability that more children are associated with poorer health in later life, especially for chronic conditions and depression. However, a universal global or regional pattern could not be identified. These findings raise new questions about how country contexts shape fertility and health.

COVID-19 precautionary behaviors and vaccine acceptance among older individuals: The role of close kin.

The family plays a central role in shaping health behaviors of its members through social control and support mechanisms. We investigate whether and to what extent close kin (i.e., partner and children) matter for older people in taking on precautionary behaviors (e.g., wearing a mask) and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Drawing on data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we combine its Corona Surveys (June to September 2020 and June to August 2021) with pre-COVID information (October 2019 to March 2020). We find that having close kin (especially a partner) is associated with a higher probability of both adopting precautionary behaviors and accepting a COVID-19 vaccine. Results are robust to controlling for other potential drivers of precautionary behaviors and vaccine acceptance and to accounting for coresidence with kin. Our findings suggest that policymakers and practitioners may differently address kinless individuals when promoting public policy measures.

A machine learning approach to determine the influence of specific health conditions on self-rated health across education groups.

BACKGROUND: Self-rated health, a subjective health outcome that summarizes an individual's health conditions in one indicator, is widely used in population health studies. However, despite its demonstrated ability as a predictor of mortality, we still do not full understand the relative importance of the specific health conditions that lead respondents to answer the way they do when asked to rate their overall health. Here, education, because of its ability to identify different social strata, can be an important factor in this self-rating process. The aim of this article is to explore possible differences in association pattern between self-rated health and functional health conditions (IADLs, ADLs), chronic diseases, and mental health (depression) among European women and men between the ages of 65 and 79 according to educational attainment (low, medium, and high). METHODS: Classification trees (J48 algorithm), an established machine learning technique that has only recently started to be used in social sciences, are used to predict self-rated health outcomes. The data about the aforementioned health conditions among European women and men aged between 65 and 79 comes from the sixth wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 27,230). RESULTS: It is confirmed the high ability to predict respondents' self-rated health by their reports related to their chronic diseases, IADLs, ADLs, and depression. However, in the case of women, these patterns are much more heterogeneous when the level of educational attainment is considered, whereas among men the pattern remains largely the same. CONCLUSIONS: The same response to the self-rated health question may, in the case of women, represent different health profiles in terms of the health conditions that define it. As such, gendered health inequalities defined by education appear to be evident even in the process of evaluating one's own health status.

Changes in Grandparental Childcare During the Pandemic and Mental Health: Evidence From England.

OBJECTIVES: Policies aiming at reducing rates of hospitalization and death from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) encouraged older people to reduce physical interactions. In England, until July 2021, provision of care for grandchildren was allowed only under very limited circumstances. Evidence also suggests that reduced face-to-face interactions took a toll on mental health during the pandemic. This study aims to investigate associations between changes in grandchild care provision during the first 8/9 months of the pandemic and grandparents' mental health. METHODS: Using prepandemic data from Wave 9 (2018/2019) and the second COVID-19 substudy (November/December 2020) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we first describe changes in grandchild care provision during the pandemic to then investigate, using regression models, associations between changes in grandchild care provision and mental health (depression, quality of life, life satisfaction), while controlling for prepandemic levels of the outcome variables. RESULTS: About 10% of grandparents stopped looking after grandchildren altogether during the first 9 months of the pandemic, with 22% reporting an overall decrease in the amount of grandchild care provided. Compared to grandparents who mostly maintained unchanged their grandchild care provision, those who stopped altogether and those who mostly reduced the amount of grandchild care provided were more likely to report poorer mental health, even accounting for prepandemic health. DISCUSSION: While measures to limit physical contact and shield older people were necessary to reduce the spread of COVID-19, policymakers should acknowledge potential adverse consequences for mental health among grandparents who experienced changes in their roles as grandchild caregivers.

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy.

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

Loneliness before and during the COVID-19 pandemic-are unpartnered and childless older adults at higher risk?

COVID-19 mitigation efforts had the potential to exacerbate loneliness among older adults, particularly for the unpartnered or childless, yet specific studies on loneliness among these groups during the COVID-19 pandemic are lacking. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) collected before (October 2019-March 2020) and during the pandemic (June-August 2020), we examine two loneliness outcomes: (1) "have you felt lonely recently?" (both datasets) and (2) "have you felt lonelier than before the pandemic?" (2020), and examine differences by partnership and parenthood status. Before COVID-19, those who lacked one tie but had the other (unpartnered parents or partnered childless) were at highest loneliness risk. During COVID-19, unpartnered and childless-especially unpartnered-remain at higher risk for loneliness, entering loneliness, and not "exiting" loneliness. We discuss these findings in light of family norms and needs in pandemic and non-pandemic times and provide recommendations for future research. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00718-x.

Close kin influence COVID-19 precautionary behaviors and vaccine acceptance of older individuals.

The family plays a central role in shaping health behaviors of its members through social control and support mechanisms. We investigate whether and to what extent close kin (i.e., partner and children) have mattered for older people in taking on precautionary behaviors (e.g., physical distancing) and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Drawing on data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we combine its Corona Surveys (June-August 2020 and June-August 2021) with pre-COVID information (October 2019-March2020). We find that having close kin (especially a partner) is associated with a higher probability of both adopting precautionary behaviors and accepting a COVID-19 vaccine. Results are robust to controlling for other potential drivers of precautionary behaviors and vaccine acceptance, as well as to accounting for co-residence with kin. Our findings suggest that policy makers and practitioners may differently address kinless individuals when promoting public policy measures.

What Tears Couples Apart: A Machine Learning Analysis of Union Dissolution in Germany.

This study contributes to the literature on union dissolution by adopting a machine learning (ML) approach, specifically Random Survival Forests (RSF). We used RSF to analyze data on 2,038 married or cohabiting couples who participated in the German Socio-Economic Panel Survey, and found that RSF had considerably better predictive accuracy than conventional regression models. The man's and the woman's life satisfaction and the woman's percentage of housework were the most important predictors of union dissolution; several other variables (e.g., woman's working hours, being married) also showed substantial predictive power. RSF was able to detect complex patterns of association, and some predictors examined in previous studies showed marginal or null predictive power. Finally, while we found that some personality traits were strongly predictive of union dissolution, no interactions between those traits were evident, possibly reflecting assortative mating by personality traits. From a methodological point of view, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of ML techniques for the analysis of union dissolution and for demographic research in general. Key features of ML include the ability to handle a large number of predictors, the automatic detection of nonlinearities and nonadditivities between predictors and the outcome, generally superior predictive accuracy, and robustness against multicollinearity.

Is There a Rejuvenating Effect of (Grand)Childcare? A Longitudinal Study on German Data.

OBJECTIVES: Provision of grandchild care has been found to be associated with a youthful subjective age. Yet, previous studies on this topic were cross-sectional and ignored the increasing proportions of older people growing old without the opportunity to become a grandparent. This study investigates the effects of childcare to grandchildren and to other children on subjective age using panel data. METHODS: We exploit the longitudinal nature of data from the German Ageing Survey (DEAS) to examine the association between grandparental childcare and care to other children with subjective age, using fixed-effects regression analyses on a sample of 50-85 years old individuals (men: N = 11,151; n = 3,984; women: N = 10,687; n = 3,746, where N is the number of observations and n is the number of individuals). RESULTS: The results from cross-sectional analyses show a "rejuvenating effect" of provision of both types of childcare in later life, especially for women. However, longitudinal analyses find very small and statistically insignificant effects. DISCUSSION: We show for the first time that both grandchild care and childcare outside the grandparent-grandchild relationship are associated with a youthful subjective age for older people. However, these associations are likely due to selection effects, that is, unobserved characteristics of people that make them more likely to engage in childcare and are also associated with subjective age. Our results warn against causal interpretation of associations found in previous studies, but also open up new research questions on the role played by childcare other than to grandchildren.

Matching on poset-based average rank for multiple treatments to compare many unbalanced groups.

In this article, we propose an original matching procedure for multiple treatment frameworks based on partially ordered set theory (poset). In our proposal, called matching on poset-based average rank for multiple treatments (MARMoT), poset theory is used to summarize individuals' confounders and the relative average rank is used to balance confounders and match individuals in different treatment groups. This approach proves to be particularly useful for balancing confounders when the number of treatments considered is high. We apply our approach to the estimation of neighborhood effect on the fractures among older people in Turin (a city in northern Italy).

Effects of Pandemic on Feelings of Depression in Italy: The Role of Age, Gender, and Individual Experiences During the First Lockdown.

The restrictions to physical contacts that have been imposed in different countries to deal with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have contributed to an increase in feelings of depression on top of other negative consequences of the pandemic. This study examines the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on feelings of depression using original data collected in Italy between April 14 and 24, 2020. Quota sampling (N = 3,026) was performed to target the population of 18+ and, together with post-stratification weights, permitted obtaining a representative sample of the Italian population with respect to key sociodemographic factors. We find that 47% of the respondents have increased depressive feelings during the Covid-19 lockdown. Adopting a life-course perspective, we revealed great heterogeneity in feelings of depression consequences by age, gender, and difficulties experienced during the first national lockdown. Identifying groups of population at higher risk of suffering from feelings of depression as a result of COVID-19 is crucial to limit indirect long-term consequences of the pandemic.

Physically distant but socially close? Changes in non-physical intergenerational contacts at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic among older people in France, Italy and Spain.

Physical distancing is intended to mitigate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, the impact of a decrease in face-to-face contacts on non-physical social contacts of older people remains unclear. In particular, we focus on intergenerational contacts that are especially relevant for older people's mental health. Our analyses rely on an online quota sampling survey conducted in France, Italy and Spain during April 14-24, 2020. We considered the subsample of individuals aged 50 + (N = 4207). We calculated post-stratification weights based on official statistics and used logistic regressions to analyze how changes in intergenerational contacts differed by socioeconomic factors and to what extent non-physical contacts (via phone, social media, etc.) have compensated the reduction in face-to-face contacts. Finally, the change in digital devices' use has been explored as a consequence of both decreased physical intergenerational contacts (PIC) and increased non-physical intergenerational contacts (NPIC). We found that about 50% of older people have increased their NPIC during the first lockdown. Younger individuals, those with medium level of education, and those economically better off displayed higher probabilities of increased NPIC as compared to their counterparts. NPIC increased especially for individuals whose face-to-face contacts decreased, particularly so if this happened with respect to contacts with children. A large share of older people has increased their use of video calls and instant messages, while only some increased the use of social media. These findings are relevant to understand how intergenerational contacts changed during the pandemic and may be central to better plan future outbreak responses. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-021-00621-x.

Older People's Nonphysical Contacts and Depression During the COVID-19 Lockdown.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: With the goal of slowing down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, restrictions to physical contacts have been taken in many countries. We examine to what extent intergenerational and other types of nonphysical contacts have reduced the risk of increased perceived depressive feelings during the lockdown for people aged 50+. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We implemented an online panel survey based on quota sampling in France, Italy, and Spain in April 2020, about 1 month after the start of the lockdown. Our analyses are based on logistic regression models and use post-stratification weights. RESULTS: About 50% of individuals aged 50+ felt sad or depressed more often than usual during the lockdown in the 3 considered countries. Older people who increased or maintained unchanged nonphysical contacts with noncoresident individuals during the lockdown were at a lower risk of increased perceived depressive feelings compared to those who experienced a reduction in nonphysical contacts. The beneficial effect of nonphysical contacts was stronger for intergenerational relationships. The effects were similar by gender and stronger among individuals aged 70+, living in Spain and not living alone before the start of the lockdown. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: In the next phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, or during any future similar pandemic, policy makers may implement measures that balance the need to reduce the spread of the virus with the necessity of allowing for limited physical contacts. Social contacts at a distance may be encouraged as a means to keep social closeness, while being physically distant.

Juggling Grandchild Care and Labor Force Participation: The Effect on Psychological Wellbeing of Older Women.

Although it is well-known that care responsibilities are strongly gendered also in later life, the consequences for older women of juggling work and care responsibilities are understudied. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on the wellbeing implications for older European women of combining work and grandchild care. The role strain and role enhancement theories guide our theoretical predictions. While the former predicts a lower wellbeing due to the double burden of grandchild care and paid work, the latter posits an increase in wellbeing through the accumulation of social identities or roles. By using longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we investigate whether grandmothers who do and those who do not work experience different levels of quality of life, depressive symptoms and life satisfaction. Our statistical model consists in a fixed-effect regression that adjusts for the lagged outcome. Results show that, among grandmothers engaged in paid work, grandchild care is not significantly associated with any of the three outcomes considered. Instead, non-working grandmothers seem to benefit from provision of grandchild care, in terms of higher quality of life and lower number of depressive symptoms. As thus, the provision of grandchild care tends to be beneficial for grandmothers' wellbeing only if they do not combine this activity with paid work. Juggling paid work and childcare to grandchildren may result in an excessive burden which eliminates the potential benefits of grandchild care on older women's wellbeing.

Childlessness and Health Among Older Adults: Variation Across Five Outcomes and 20 Countries.

OBJECTIVES: No previous study to the best of our knowledge has examined the association between childlessness and health using a wide range of countries and health outcomes. This study improves previous literature by examining the relationship between "childlessness" (1 = childless for any reason, 0 = parent of biological, step, or adopted child) and health across 20 countries and five health outcomes. METHODS: Drawing on cross-sectional harmonized data from the family of Health and Retirement Surveys across the United States (HRS, Wave 11), Europe (SHARE, Waves 4 and 5), Mexico (MHAS, Wave 3), and China (CHARLS, Wave 2), we use logistic regression models to estimate the association between childlessness and poor health (poor self-rated health, 1 or more ADL limitations, 1 or more IADL limitations, 1 or more chronic conditions, and depression) in a sample of adults aged 50 and older across 20 countries (N = 109,648). RESULTS: Our results point to an absence of associations between childlessness and health, and suggest that childlessness may be associated with better (e.g., Mexico, Hungary) or worse health (e.g., Austria, Estonia, Netherlands, Poland) in certain contexts and for certain measures. DISCUSSION: We discuss these findings in light of the meaning of childlessness, as well as cross-national economic, social, and cultural contexts to provide suggestions for aging policy and future research.